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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -225.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 136.5 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 13.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of New England's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 25.6%.

Stefon Diggs ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to wide receivers this year with a whopping 28.1% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 56.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a measly 54.4 per game on average).

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

With a lousy ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Stefon Diggs rates as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among WRs this year.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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