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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-265).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New England Patriots.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 11.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New England's pass game near the end zone in this game at 21.4%.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Stefon Diggs has totaled far fewer air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).

Stefon Diggs's 44.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.8.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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