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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New England's pass game near the end zone in this game at 15.9%.

Stefon Diggs has received a monstrous 22.9% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.

Stefon Diggs's 86.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 73.7% figure.

Since the start of last season, the poor Panthers defense has allowed a massive 1.10 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Stefon Diggs's 32.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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