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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-330).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -330.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (60.1% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower run volume.

Stefon Diggs ranks in the 80th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season with a remarkable 24.4% of his team's air yards accumulated.

Stefon Diggs places in the 76th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 51.1 mark since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

With an outstanding rate of 0.12 rushing touchdowns per game (97th percentile), Stefon Diggs stands as one of the best rushing TD-scorers in the NFL among WRs and TEs last year.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded a paltry 0.89 passing TDs per game to opposing wideouts: the 5th-best rate in the league.

The Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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