reorder

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -255 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this week's contest (24.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).

The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.

After averaging 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has significantly declined this season, currently sitting at 50.0 per game.

Stefon Diggs's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

Stefon Diggs TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21