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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -192.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • Stefon Diggs has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.3% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Stefon Diggs's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 82.6%.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Stefon Diggs has posted quite a few less air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
  • Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.
  • Stefon Diggs has rushed for 0.12 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among WRs and TEs (99th percentile).

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