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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+156/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.5 per game) this year.
  • With an exceptional 19.6% Red Zone Target% (81st percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs rates among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 73.7% to 83.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
  • The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has been a disappointment this season, currently averaging 56.0 per game.
  • With a terrific rate of 0.12 rushing TDs per game (99th percentile), Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in the NFL among wide receivers and tight ends last year.

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