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Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-176).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -176.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which places him in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs.Stefon Diggs's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the league: 76th percentile for WRs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.After averaging 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has produced significantly fewer this season, currently pacing 58.0 per game.With a fantastic ratio of 0.12 touchdowns on the ground per game (98th percentile), Stefon Diggs stands among the top rushing TD-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends last year.This year, the stout Bengals defense has yielded a paltry 0.60 TDs through the air per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-smallest rate in football.
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