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Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+138/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -188 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

With an elite 23.8% Red Zone Target Rate (90th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs stands among the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Stefon Diggs's 84.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a remarkable boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.7% mark.

When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's group of DTs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.

After totaling 64.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has fallen off this year, currently averaging 54.0 per game.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

Stefon Diggs TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11