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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In this contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 88th percentile among wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
  • The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • With a stellar 4.9 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
  • Stefon Diggs's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 73.7% to 89.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
  • Stefon Diggs's 67.5% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a noteworthy decline in his passing attack volume over last season's 83.6% mark.

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