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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 136.5 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Stefon Diggs to total 9.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Stefon Diggs's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 73.7% to 84.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 56.3% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a measly 54.4 per game on average).

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

Stefon Diggs has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (65.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.6%).

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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