Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots · Week 21, 2025

Updated Jan 25, 2026 8:02 PM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+121/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -144 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to accrue 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Stefon Diggs's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 85.4%.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
Stefon Diggs's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.
Stefon Diggs's 4.3 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a noteable reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 5.7 figure.

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