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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+121/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -144 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
  • The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to accrue 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Stefon Diggs's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 73.7% to 85.4%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
  • Stefon Diggs's 44.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.
  • Stefon Diggs's 4.3 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a noteable reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 5.7 figure.

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