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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-147/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -147.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 6.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Stefon Diggs's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 82.6%.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.8 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.
  • Stefon Diggs's receiving talent has tailed off this year, notching just 4.6 adjusted catches compared to 5.7 last year.
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) vs. WRs this year (62.9%).

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