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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-144/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -144.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
  • In this week's game, Stefon Diggs is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 87th percentile among wideouts with 8.0 targets.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • With a fantastic 5.0 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks among the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Stefon Diggs's 70.7% Route Participation% this season illustrates a substantial diminishment in his pass game volume over last season's 83.6% figure.

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