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Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In this game, Stefon Diggs is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 81st percentile among wide receivers with 7.1 targets.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Stefon Diggs's 84.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a remarkable boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 73.7% mark.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, profiling as the 9th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.

Stefon Diggs's 68.9% Route% this season shows a substantial reduction in his passing attack usage over last season's 83.6% rate.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

Stefon Diggs ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Stefon Diggs Receptions
Player Prop Week 11