Stefon Diggs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots · Week 10, 2025

Updated Nov 10, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-159/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in football (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
In this game, Stefon Diggs is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Stefon Diggs's 85.5% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a substantial boost in his receiving talent over last year's 73.7% figure.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Stefon Diggs's 68.1% Route Participation% this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his air attack volume over last year's 83.6% figure.
Stefon Diggs's receiving performance has worsened this season, accumulating just 4.1 adjusted receptions compared to 5.7 last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.7%) vs. wideouts this year (61.7%).
The Tampa Bay cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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