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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are an enormous 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

The projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

In this week's game, Stefon Diggs is projected by the projection model to land in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.5 targets.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL.

Stefon Diggs has been a less important option in his team's passing offense this year (18.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (23.8%).

Stefon Diggs has totaled far fewer air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

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