Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 12, 2026 4:02 AM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast Stefon Diggs to accumulate 6.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Stefon Diggs has been one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 56.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Stefon Diggs's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 73.7% to 85.4%.
Stefon Diggs's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, averaging 10.58 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.78 rate last year.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see just 125.1 plays on offense called: the fewest on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
After accruing 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has posted significant losses this season, currently averaging 51.0 per game.

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