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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the New England Patriots offensive blueprint to skew 4.4% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
  • This week, Stefon Diggs is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 87th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
  • The New England O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • With an excellent 57.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (92nd percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Patriots to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see only 125.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • Stefon Diggs has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
  • Stefon Diggs's 46.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 53.8.

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