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Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-117/-114).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -117.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects Stefon Diggs to garner 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among WRs.When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.Stefon Diggs checks in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.Stefon Diggs's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 73.7% to 83.7%.Stefon Diggs's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 10.00 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.78 figure last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.The projections expect the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have only 125.3 offensive plays run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.Stefon Diggs's 70.7% Route Participation Rate this season represents a substantial drop-off in his passing attack workload over last season's 83.6% figure.After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has been a disappointment this season, currently averaging 58.0 per game.
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