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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Patriots offensive strategy to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to run the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The projections expect Stefon Diggs to accrue 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.

With a sizeable 23.8% Target Share (87th percentile) last year, Stefon Diggs has been among the wideouts with the most usage in football.

Stefon Diggs has compiled a staggering 64.0 air yards per game last year: 78th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The New England offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

With a lackluster 7.8 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) last year, Stefon Diggs rates as one of the worst pass-catching WRs in the NFL.

The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 125.0) to wideouts last year.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers last year, allowing 7.70 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in the league.

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