Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Stefon Diggs

NFL · Player Props

Stefon Diggs

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 86.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 85.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 86.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the league (67.7% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Bills.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Stefon Diggs to accrue 10.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Stefon Diggs has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this year (33.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.0%).
After averaging 104.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has seen a big uptick this year, now pacing 135.0 per game.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
Stefon Diggs's 2.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a remarkable regression in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 4.1% figure.

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