Scotty Miller Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Scotty Miller

NFL · Player Props

Scotty Miller

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 2:02 AM UTC

Analysis

Scotty Miller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1050/-4700).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With a meager 1.5% Red Zone Target Rate (15th percentile) since the start of last season, Scott Miller ranks among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
Scott Miller has notched a mere 7.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 18th percentile among wideouts.
Scott Miller ranks in just the 9th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an unimpressive 6.0 figure since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 10th-fewest receiving TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.95 per game since the start of last season.

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