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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Philadelphia Eagles vs Denver Broncos

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-142/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the projections to call 65.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.2 per game) this year.

Saquon Barkley has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among RBs.

Saquon Barkley slots into the 96th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 19.8 figure since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Eagles to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 53.4% red zone run rate.

After totaling 7.0 air yards per game last season, Saquon Barkley has undergone a big decline this season, now sitting at -6.0 per game.

Saquon Barkley grades out in the 1st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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