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Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+122).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.With an elite 18.6% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Saquon Barkley has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.As it relates to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the towering 97th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating a massive 5.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.Saquon Barkley has rushed for 0.79 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (96th percentile).
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