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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-172/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

With an exceptional 19.4% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Saquon Barkley rates as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.

Saquon Barkley has notched a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

With an outstanding ratio of 0.83 rushing touchdowns per game (96th percentile), Saquon Barkley rates among the top rushing TD-scorers in the NFL since the start of last season.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to running backs: 0.05 per game since the start of last season.

More Saquon Barkley Player Props

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