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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Eagles will be forced to start backup quarterback Tanner McKee in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.6 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (34.1 per game) this year.
  • Saquon Barkley has totaled a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Saquon Barkley slots into the 92nd percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 17.9 figure this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 51.4% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.4% red zone run rate.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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