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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Eagles are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
  • Saquon Barkley has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
  • Saquon Barkley has accumulated a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Saquon Barkley's 18.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for running backs.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • At the moment, the most run-focused team in football in the red zone (53.5% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Philadelphia Eagles.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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