Saquon Barkley Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 20, 2025 10:02 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-136/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +350 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Saquon Barkley has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When talking about air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
Saquon Barkley's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 93rd percentile for RBs.
The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley ranks in the 85th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.13 per game.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (53.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.
Saquon Barkley's 80.0% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteworthy decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 85.3% rate.