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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+111/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Saquon Barkley has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Saquon Barkley has put up a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Saquon Barkley ranks in the 94th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a colossal 20.9 figure this year.
  • Saquon Barkley grades out in the 90th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an outstanding 0.17 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 52.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (52.5% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Eagles.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to see just 124.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: fewest in football.

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