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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-124/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -124.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • With a top-tier 18.2% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.
  • Saquon Barkley has accumulated a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Saquon Barkley's 22.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for RBs.
  • Saquon Barkley grades out in the 90th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.18 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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