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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-112/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year.
  • With a top-tier 17.9% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley places among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
  • When talking about air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • Saquon Barkley's 19.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 92nd percentile for running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.6% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see only 126.1 total plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a lowly 54.3 per game on average).

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