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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
  • Saquon Barkley has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Saquon Barkley's 20.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 94th percentile for running backs.
  • Saquon Barkley's 89.5% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 85.2% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 52.2% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see just 124.1 plays on offense called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a lowly 52.2 per game on average).
  • With an excellent ratio of 0.50 rushing touchdowns per game (92nd percentile), Saquon Barkley stands as one of the best rushing touchdown-scorers in the league this year.

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