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Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 4th-most in football.The projections expect Saquon Barkley to notch 4.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.Saquon Barkley's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, averaging 3.4 adjusted receptions vs a measly 2.1 last year.Saquon Barkley's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 85.2% to 89.5%.This year, the feeble New York Giants pass defense has been torched for a staggering 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.The predictive model expects the Eagles as the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 7th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles.Saquon Barkley has been a more integral piece of his team's offense this year, staying on the field for 82.7% of snaps compared to just 69.8% last year.The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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