My Account Log Out

reorder

Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.

In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.8 targets.

Saquon Barkley's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 95th percentile for running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

More Saquon Barkley Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™