Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 28, 2025 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-172).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
With an extraordinary 59.3% Route Participation% (94th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley stands among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
This week, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the model to rank in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.5 targets.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
With an outstanding 2.3 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley has been among the top RBs in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Saquon Barkley's 76.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates an impressive diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 85.3% figure.

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