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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-235/+175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the predictive model to call 65.8 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
  • The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Eagles last year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average).
  • The leading projections forecast Saquon Barkley to accumulate 2.8 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
  • Saquon Barkley has been in the 94th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 18.8 mark last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 49.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
  • The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.6%) to running backs last year (79.6%).

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