Saquon Barkley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Giants being a big -17.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.58 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 6.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.2%) to RBs this year (79.2%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 7th-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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