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Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-117/+115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -117.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down.Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.In this game, Saquon Barkley is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 94th percentile among RBs with 4.5 targets.When it comes to air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 77th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a whopping 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).Saquon Barkley checks in as one of the top pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7-point advantage, the Eagles are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.63 seconds per snap.Saquon Barkley has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this season, playing on 81.9% of snaps compared to just 69.8% last season.Saquon Barkley's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, notching a mere 5.32 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.31 mark last season.
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