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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

In this contest, Saquon Barkley is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile among running backs with 3.6 targets.

Saquon Barkley has notched a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Saquon Barkley's 4.9 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a noteable drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 7.3 figure.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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