Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 21, 2025 12:27 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an elite 58.6% Route Participation% (95th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to notch 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
When talking about air yards, Saquon Barkley ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
The Eagles O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Saquon Barkley profiles as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 17.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

A running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.32 seconds per play.
Saquon Barkley's 80.0% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a noteworthy decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 85.3% rate.
Saquon Barkley's 5.6 adjusted yards per target this year represents a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 7.3 figure.