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Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • In this game, Saquon Barkley is predicted by the model to slot into the 86th percentile among running backs with 3.9 targets.
  • Saquon Barkley has accumulated a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among running backs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Saquon Barkley's 22.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 94th percentile for RBs.
  • Saquon Barkley ranks as one of the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 22.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.

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