Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 7th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (a staggering 59.0 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to garner 3.4 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
When it comes to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the towering 97th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a massive 7.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Eagles are a heavy favorite this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Saquon Barkley's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 27.4.
Saquon Barkley grades out as one of the weakest running backs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 5.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 18th percentile.