Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.
In this week's contest, Saquon Barkley is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.1 targets.
Saquon Barkley has notched a whopping 7.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.
Saquon Barkley grades out as one of the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 21.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 46.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.99 seconds per snap.
Saquon Barkley's 20.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 27.4.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.