Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Saquon Barkley

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 9, 2024 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are projected by the model to run 65.9 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.4 plays per game.
Saquon Barkley has posted a colossal 8.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
Saquon Barkley has been one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 23.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
Saquon Barkley's 88.5% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 72.6% mark.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Eagles to pass on 42.9% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Saquon Barkley's 20.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 27.4.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) versus running backs this year.

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