Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 25, 2024 1:26 AM EST

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Eagles are forecasted by the predictive model to run 67.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
The 7th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to notch 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the towering 99th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 8.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Eagles being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.
Saquon Barkley's 18.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 27.4.