Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Saquon Barkley

RB · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to call 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Saquon Barkley to accumulate 5.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a massive 3.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

Favors Under

With a 58.6% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football has been the New York Giants.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Saints, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Saquon Barkley comes in as one of the least efficient receivers in the league among RBs, averaging a measly 4.62 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 10th percentile.
Saquon Barkley's 5.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a remarkable decline in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 7.8% figure.