Sammy Watkins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Sammy Watkins

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Sammy Watkins has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (48.7%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Sammy Watkins's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.8% to 65.6%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (70.2%) to WRs this year (70.2%).

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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