Sammy Watkins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Sammy Watkins

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Sammy Watkins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+306/-548).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +313 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +306.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Sammy Watkins to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played).
Sammy Watkins's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.8% to 70.9%.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (63.3%) versus wideouts this year (63.3%).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.