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Samaje Perine Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-4500).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4500.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Samaje Perine has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile among running backs.The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.6%) versus RBs since the start of last season (79.6%).As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Minnesota's group of DEs has been easily exploitable since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.
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